Service Plays Sunday 08/02/09

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

SUNDAY, AUGUST 2

NATIONAL LEAGUE


L.A. Dodgers (64-40) at Atlanta (53-51)

The Dodgers send right-hander Chad Billingsley (10-6, 3.96 ERA) to the mound opposite Braves righty Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69) in the rubber match of a three-game set at Turner Field.

After losing 5-0 on Friday night, the Braves rallied to beat Los Angeles 4-3 on Saturday afternoon behind the stellar pitching of former Dodger Derek Lowe. Atlanta has won five of the last six meetings with the Dodgers in Atlanta and seven of the last 10 clashes overall.

Los Angeles is on positive streaks of 23-9 in the third game of a series, 5-2 on Sundays and 13-7 against N.L. East foes, but the Dodgers are just 3-5 in Billingsley’s last eight trips to the mound. Atlanta is on runs of 11-3 at home, 8-3 as a favorite, 7-1 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in the third game of a series and 5-0 when Jurrjens faces N.L. West opponents.

Billingsley has been a disaster lately, going 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA in his last three outings. On Tuesday in St. Louis, he allowed six runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 loss to the Cardinals, and over his last four starts he’s given up 19 runs in just 18 1/3 innings as the Dodgers have gone 2-2. Billingsley has only faced the Braves twice in his career – both last season – and he lost both contests, yielding a combined 10 runs (nine earned) on 12 hits in 10 1/3 innings.

Jurrjens has been magnificent in his three starts since the All-Star break, going 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA, giving up a total of three runs over 19 2/3 innings. In his last three at home, Jurrjens has surrendered a grand total of one earned run as the Braves went 3-0. Jurrjens beat the Dodgers twice last year, allowing a combined two runs on eight hits in 13 innings, prevailing 9-3 on the road (against Billingsley) and 6-1 at home.

With Billingsley on the mound, Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Sundays, 4-1-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Dodgers have also topped the total in 11 of 15 Sunday games, but overall they are on “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 5-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 against teams with a winning record.

When Jurrjens throws for Atlanta, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 5-2-1 as a home favorite. Like L.A., the Braves have gone over the number in 11 of 15 Sunday contests, but they’re otherwise on “under” streaks of 15-6-2 at home, 21-7-5 against right-handers, 13-4-2 as a home chalk and 7-2 in the third game of a series. Finally, the under is 7-1 in the last eight series clashes between these squads, including 5-0 in Atlanta.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (62-42) at Chicago White Sox (54-51)


The White Sox send red-hot southpaw Mark Buehrle (11-4, 3.45 ERA) to the hill at U.S. Cellular Field looking to complete a four-game sweep of the Yankees and ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia (10-7, 3.83).

Chicago crushed New York 14-4 on Saturday afternoon, using a pair of six-run innings to do the damage, after beating the Yankees 10-5 on Friday night. New York, which had entered this series on a 10-4 overall run against the White Sox, has now lost four straight in the Windy City.

The Yankees are on positive streaks of 24-10 overall, 8-1 in the fourth game of a series, 7-2 on the road against southpaws, 35-17 against the A.L. Central, 41-21 as a favorite and 37-18 on Sundays, but they are just 2-7 in their last nine roadies and they’ve lost seven in a row as road favorites. The White Sox are on runs of 5-0 at home, 11-3 against left-handed starters, 6-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-0 against the A.L. East.

Sabathia got beaten up in Tampa on Tuesday, allowing six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. The Yankees have split his last 10 outings and are just 2-4 in his last six on the highway. He faced the White Sox three times last season as a starter for Cleveland, giving up 11 runs on 19 hits in 20 1/3 innings (4.87 ERA) as the Indians went 1-2. During his career with Cleveland, though, Sabathia was 14-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 26 starts versus the Pale Hose.

After throwing his perfect game against the Rays on July 23, Buehrle went to the Metrodome Tuesday and retired the first 17 Twins hitters he faced before eventually allowing five runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss. Including the perfect game against Tampa Bay, Buehrle is 7-1 in front x with a 2.50 ERA in 12 starts in front of the home fans.

With Buehrle on the hill, Chicago is on runs of 7-2 overall, 10-3 on Sundays, 49-20 at home, 4-0 as a home ‘dog, 4-0 against the A.L. East and 9-1 at home against winning clubs. Also, Buehrle saw the Yankees just once last season and allowed two runs on six hits in six innings of a 4-2 loss, dropping to 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA in eight career starts against New York.

With Sabathia on the hill, the Yankees have topped the total in five of eight overall, four of five on the road and five of eight as a favorite. As a team, though, they are on “under” runs of 10-5-1 overall, 9-4-1 as a favorite and 4-2 against the A.L. Central. Meanwhile, with Buehrle pitching, the White Sox carry “under” streaks of 17-7 overall, 9-4 at home and 10-4 as a home underdog. As a team, the Sox are on “under” streaks of 13-4 overall, 38-18 at home, 23-10-2 as underdogs, 5-2 against the A.L. East and 5-0 against southpaws.

Finally, six of the last seven New York-Chicago meetings in the Windy City have topped the total, and the over is 5-3 in Buehrle’s eight lifetime starts against the Yanks.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Twins Saturday night.

Today it's the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Brewers. The surplus is 695 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

August 2, 2009

Hondo was held for no gain last night as his Tiger victory offset his Cardinal loss and left him holding steady at 470 zisks below sea level.

Today, Mr. Aitch expects the Yankees to reveal many of Buehrle's imperfections -- 10 units on Sabathia.
 

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Tony Weston
SUNDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime Angels


Angels at Twins
ANGELS - Through the first two games of this series against the Minnesota Twins, the Anaheim Angels have outscored the home team by a combined 22-11, easily taking both contests.

Today, I’m not going to suggest you take the Angels on another Run Line play, but do take Anaheim on the Money Line as they make it three straight in this series.

So far this season the Angels and Twins have met nine times and since Minnesota took the first three meetings, Anaheim has won 5 of 6, including the aforementioned first two games of this series.

Going back to last season, the Angels have gone 10-6 their last 16 against the Twins.

Consider, too, Anaheim is not only on a four-game winning streak, but it has also won 16 of its last 19 games and is on a 7-0 run on the road.

The Angels will come through once again and get over on the Twins today. Take Anaheim on the road in this one.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BT MARF,IRONHORSE AND MYSELF------------GL GUYS:103631605


 

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Jeff Benton Saturday's 20 Dime winner ... 20 DIME: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does NOT start, this play is VOID!


Braves

Ever so quietly, Jair Jurrjens has put together some incredible numbers and emerged as the Braves’ bona fide ace this year. No, his 9-7 record isn’t very attractive, nor is his team’s 11-11 mark when Jurrjens pitches. However, those records don’t come close to reflecting how strong the right-hander has been this season. For a more accurate depiction of Jurrjens’ abilities, get a load of these stats:

He has a 2.69 ERA, which is sixth-lowest in the National League; he has a 2.51 ERA in 11 home starts (including giving up just one run in his last three at home); he’s allowing barely a baserunner per inning (159 combined hits and walks allowed in 134 innings); and he has 93 strikeout against 48 walks overall (nearly a 2-to-1 ratio). Also, in Jurrjens’ 22 starts, he’s given up three earned runs or fewer 19 times, two earned or less 17 times and one or no earned runs on nine occasions, and he’s pitched at least six innings in 17 of his last 18 starts that weren’t interrupted by rain.

Jurrjens enters this game against the Dodgers on a roll, having given up a total of five runs and 17 hits in his last four starts covering 25 2/3 innings (1.75 ERA). The Braves won the first three of those games – beating Colorado 4-3 on the road and the Mets (11-0) and Giants (4-2 at home) – before suffering a tough 4-3 loss at Florida on Monday.

And for good measure, look at what Jurrjens did in two starts against the Dodgers last season: He gave up a run on three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 home win last April, then surrendered just a run on five hits over six innings of a 9-3 road victory last July. Those two runs allowed in 13 innings equates to a 1.39 ERA. By comparison, Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley also faced the Braves twice last season and went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA – including going opposite Jurrjens in that 9-3 Atlanta win in Los Angeles.

Speaking of Billingsley, the Dodgers’ ace has hit a big-time wall. Over his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 19 runs (all earned) in just 18 1/3 innings (9.33 ERA). L.A. split those four games, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis on Monday, and the Dodgers are just 3-5 in his last eight trips to the mound (2-3 on the road). One sure sign that the hard-throwing Billingsley isn’t right: He has 11 walks against 16 strikeouts during his four-start funk after enjoying a 115-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18 starts.

With this game being played at night, it’s also interesting to note that Billingsley’s ERA under the lights (4.40) is nearly twice as high as Jurrjens’ ERA in night games (2.52). Throw in the fact that the Braves have won 11 of their last 14 home games, eight of their last 11 as a favorite, and five straight games against the N.L. West with Jurrjens starting, and I’ll lay this very reasonable price – especially considering this a very tough spot for the Dodgers, who are wrapping up a seven-game road trip with a less-than-desired night game, after which they’ll board a long red-eye flight back to L.A.







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Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play 10 Dime -- BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers (Billingsley)

BRAVES
NOTE: List only Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher

Braves starter Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69 ERA) has quietly become one of the best right-handers in the National League.

Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA over his last four starts, and has allowed one earned run and six hits in his last 20 2/3 innings at Turner Field. The 23-year-old Atlanta ace allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings Tuesday at Florida.

Jurrjens hasn't faced the Dodgers yet this year, but he went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against them last season, allowing two runs and eight hits in 13 innings.

Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley (10-6, 3.96) won nine games by mid-June, but has triumphed just once with a 6.46 ERA in his last eight starts. The right-hander allowed six runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at St. Louis.

Billingsley has had troubles with Atlanta in the past, going 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in four appearances (two starts). He allowed nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two outings against the Braves last year.

The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six games in Atlanta, and I don't see that improving today. Go with the Braves in this one.


BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND MYSELF----------GL GUYS:103631605
 

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Scott Delaney
Sunday ... 15-Dime Red Sox -1' Runs (I am taking whomever pitches for Boston over Berken) - This should be easy money, as I’m siding against Jason Berken wholeheartedly. After all, the Orioles are 0-3 in his last three starts, he’s sporting a 7.16 ERA in those games, he’s 1-8 with a 6.21 ERA in 2009 and Baltimore has lost 10 of his 12 starts this season.

Those are some horrendous numbers to come in with, especially with the Red Sox aiming for a shot to get back into first place in the American League East, with an upcoming series with the Yankees around the corner.

Yesterday’s 4-0 win clinched Boston’s ninth straight series win over the O’s, while it improved to 25-10 in Baltimore since 2005. Meanwhile, the Orioles dropped to 4-11 since the All-Star break and looked terrible in going 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position.

That offense won’t catch any breaks today, as it’s scheduled to face Clay Buchholz, who comes in after tossing 5-2/3 innings of two-run ball last Tuesday, when he struck out a season-high five in what ended up being a 9-8 loss to Oakland at Fenway Park. He took the no-decision, so after what was a respectable outing, I like my chances in him finishing the job today.

15-Dime Rays -1' Runs (I am taking whomever pitches for Tampa over whomever is going for Kansas City) - A 15-3 edge over the first two games of this series, and there’s no reason to believe the Rays can’t pull off the blowout win in the series finale.

The Royals come in on a 3-12 slide as an underdog and will be playing their seventh straight road game in as many days. Tampa Bay is in on winning runs of 9-3 versus the American League Central, 91-37 at the Trop and 24-6 in this series, including all eight meetings this season. Meanwhile, the Royals stumble into this one on a plethora of losing streaks, including 15-38 off a loss, 2-7 on the road, 7-21 against winning teams and 6-24 after giving up five or more runs their last time out (last night’s final was 7-1).

I said much of the same yesterday, and believe it’s all relevant in this one today. Lay the run line with Tampa Bay, which will crush the road-weary Royals once again.

15-Dime Tigers (WITH Galararraga over Pavano) - Off a solid extra-inning win yesterday, the Tigers will finish up with their American League Central rivals by knocking them off for the ninth time in 12 meetings this season. Though Cleveland won the opener 6-5 on Friday night, these two have gone into extra innings in games one and two, and I don’t believe the Indians will have enough left in the tank for the series finale.

Detroit starter Armando Galarraga will be glad to start August after a winless July, and I don’t mind backing the right-hander, knowing his record is far from indicative of how well Galarraga has pitched the past month. Galarraga sported an impressive 3.29 ERA in four July starts, scattering 21 hits over 27-1/3 innings while fanning 18 batters. Durability was a strong point, as three of his last four starts lasted at least seven innings, with the lone exception being a six-inning performance. He’ll be pitching in revenge for a July 11 loss to the Indians and Carl Pavano.

The Cleveland right-hander, who is sporting a 5.66 ERA this season, has given up 13 runs total against the Blue Jays and Angels in his last two starts and now faces a Tigers team that is scrapping to maintain its standing atop the Central division. That’s not exactly a good thing for Pavano, who gave up eight home runs in those two games. The long ball could be an issue today, and I’m going to be on the right side of them.



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BE BACK AROUND NOON , I AM GOING TO 9:30 MASS TO PRAY FOR YOU GAMBLERS.

CORK:pope:
 
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MLB
Dunkel


NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
The Yankees look to bounce back from yesterday's blowout loss and take advantage of a Chicago team that is just 1-6 in its last 7 games with the total set between 7 and 8 1/2. New York is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 2

Game 951-952: Arizona at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 15.960; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 16.506
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 15.481; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 12.513
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under

Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.502; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.961
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Under

Game 957-958: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Balester) 13.129; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.346
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Over

Game 959-960: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.233; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.627
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-275); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-275); Over

Game 961-962: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.650; San Francisco (Zito) 15.522
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under

Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Villanueva) 13.596; San Diego (Correia) 14.780
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Over

Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 16.131; Florida (Nolasco) 17.195
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over

Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.521; Cleveland (Pavano) 16.598
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over

Game 969-970: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.214; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.151
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-270); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+240); Over

Game 971-972: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.008; Baltimore (Berken) 15.739
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Under

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.025; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.725
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.456; Minnesota (Perkins) 16.691
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

Game 977-978: Toronto at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.958; Oakland (Mazzaro) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over

Game 979-980: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.890; Texas (Feldman) 14.610
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+175); Over
 
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WNBA Basketball Picks

Indiana at Washington

The Mystics look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 2
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Indiana at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.714; Washington 114.761
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 146 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Connecticut at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.157; Detroit 114.162
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over
 

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Craig Davis

Sunday's Lineup


40 DIME ---- RANGERS (With Feldman) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over MARINERS (With Snell)



I will be back by Noon with my analysis.
 

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Lillefty

StBernadineSports
27-4 run (Went 1-2 yesterday)

Bonus Play:
Oakland/Toronto Over 8.5

 

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Al DeMarco

Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
5 Dime - St. Louis (Wainwright) - 1 1/2 Runs over Houston (Norris)

Houston had re-entered the thick of the N.L. Central race after a three-game home sweep of St. Louis July 20-22. But since a home win against the Mets on July 24, the Astros have slumped badly, losing seven of eight, scoring no more than three runs in any of the setbacks.

Since that sweep in Houston, the Cardinals have rebounded nicely, going on a 7-3 tear in their last 10 games, the last nine of which coincided with the arrival of Matt Holliday, who is batting .606 with three homers and 10 RBIs since being acquired from Oakland.

St. Louis, already 5-1 on its current seven-game homestand, has won seven of nine against Houston at Busch Stadium the past two seasons combined.

The Cardinals' Adam Wainwright has quietly become a 12-game winner (12-6 with a 2.80 ERA) following a tremendous month of July in which he went 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA in six starts. He is 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA in seven career starts versus the Astros, including an April 11 victory against them this season in which pitched five innings of four-hit, shutout ball.

With Roy Oswalt injured, Houston is turning to Bud Norris for today's game. He was 4-9 with a 2.63 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A Round Rock, and just made his major league debut with three innings of one-run relief at Wrigley Field on Wednesday.

Despite playing this game on the Run Line, the price of this contest is still hovering around -135 or -140 because of Houston's recent slump and Wainwright's career domination of the Astros. However, with the Astros struggling to put runs on the board, and the Cardinals seeking to complete payback for July's three-game sweep in Houston, I've got the bankroll to make this somewhat higher priced investment.

Paid & confirmed by me.
GL!
 

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Jake Timlin
Sunday's Action

400♦ Chicago White Sox

List both Buehrle & Sabathia as starting pitchers or this play is void

Take the White Sox as they earn the four game sweep of the Yankees.

Having won the last three games by a whopping 27-11 I now expect for the White Sox to continue hot hand as they finish off the Yankees with another easy win today. Helping pave the way will be Buehrle who returns to the same mound where he tossed a perfect game in his last home start and where the lefty is 15-1 with an ERA of 2.32 over his last 21 home starts.

Now countering for the Yankees will be Sabathia who let’s face it has not lived up to his lofty contract this season due to his 10-7 record this year and a mark that won’t get any better due to CC’s current struggles verse Chicago going 0-1 mark and a 4.28 ERA in his last four outings.

Simple, given the way Chicago has dominated the first three games of this series and now throw the hottest pitcher in the game I more than expect for the White Sox to earn the four game sweep of the Evil Empire.

All Chicago!

Good Luck guys
 

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